Thursday, January 17, 2019

Roasting the Pigs of War

This piece was originally published 4/6/04 at getunderground.com. For background information, click here.

On March 20, several thousand concerned citizens took to the streets of San Francisco to protest the one-year anniversary of the United States invasion of Iraq. That evening, dovetailing with the march, the Mission District's ATA (Artists' Television Access) presented a marathon session of video shorts and documentaries about the war.

Though not predominately a political entity, ATA's focus on experimental film made it a perfect showcase for the series of shorts, all independently produced and rarely if ever shown in the country where the invasion was hatched.

ATA typically does thematically-based shows. A central theme throughout the March 20th evening production was the role the mainstream/corporate American media played (and continues to play) in producing a disconnect between perception and reality, a disconnect which is much smaller in this bluest gemstone of the blue region, where alternative media flourishes and constructive criticism is seen as the highest act of patriotism.

As the crowd filtered in past a donation table with several piles of free literature, a military promotional film by Keith Sanborn appeared on the screen. Throughout "Operation Double Trouble," shots of aircraft carriers, men in submarines, and fighter jets hovering high above the clouds filled the screen as motivational music played in the background. Intermixed with patriotic military shots were testimonials from a private who said she could do nothing more honorable than defend her country, and from a general serving in the Iraq operation who said "I worry about the youth of America," until he interacted with dutiful young soldiers who renewed his faith in America's future. Cutting against the red, white, and blue tenor was a freeze-frame effect in which propagandistic statements were stopped, rewound, and showed again, forcing the viewer to actually think about what they were seeing and hearing.

Next up was "Hollywood Victory," courtesy of Paper Tiger TV, a "neoconservative project," "directed" by Dick Cheney, "produced" by Jerry Bruckheimer, a well-known maker of shallow, splashy, big-budget movies. "Victory" was a farce that zeroed in on the power of images. Over footage of George W's (in)famous GI Joe landing on a carrier in a flight suit was a voiceover of a stern military man saying "Son, your ego's writing checks your body can't cash" and a throwaway 80's theme song complete with power chords and cheesewiz synth. From the landing, "Victory" cut to a shot of Robert Novak, a Republican talking head, saying how good Bush looked in the jumpsuit, laughing that he himself wouldn't look that good, and David Broder, long-time reporter for The Washington Post, saying how much "authority" Bush's image makers had instilled (in a man of such distinctly un-presidential timber?). After blips of whitewashed patriotic mainstream news coverage was Michael Moore's speech accepting the best documentary Oscar for "Bowling for Columbine," in which he spoke of "fictitious presidents" and "fictitious wars," only to be booed by some of the suits in the crowd and cut off by the academy orchestra. Public Enemy's "Don't Believe the Hype" closed the short on a powerful note.



***


"Freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one."

-A.J. Liebling, journalist




The meat of the marathon presentation began with "Independent Media in Time of War," a mini-documentary featuring Amy Goodman, host of Democracy Now, produced by IndyMedia, an organization dedicated to a vibrant alternative press. Standing at a podium, Amy Goodman laid out one example after another of the complicity of U.S. major media in the invasion of Iraq. 


In the first striking example, Goodman related the distinction between CNN (shown in America only) and CNN International (shown abroad): on the day that the U.S. military took Baghdad and Saddam's statue was toppled, American CNN viewers saw the statue and only the statue falling all day, whereas international CNN viewers--who expect a semblance of balance in the news--saw a split-screen, with Saddam's statue on the left, and casualties of war on the right. Made plain was why many Americans have a good feeling about the invasion, relative to people abroad who got a fuller picture from CNN International, plus the much more critical mainstream news sources in their own countries. 

When asked why CNN America did not show casualties, a CNN exec said (of the casualties) "some of them are tasteless." Spoonfeeding an audience that knew no better, the U.S. media bombarded their viewers with romanticized shots of soldiers walking in slow-mo across a tarmac and fighter planes gleaming in a morning sunset. The American coverage repeatedly referred to the precision of the U.S. operation; after all, as Tom Brokaw of General Electric/NBC nightly news said when the bombing began, "We don't want to destroy the infrastructure, because we'll own it in a few days."

The American television media interviewed generals and administration officials who supported the invasion. According to FAIR, in the week before and the week after the invasion the major networks and PBS had 393 interviews, only three of which were with people opposed to the war. Goodman pointed out that in a true democracy, where a diversity of opinions would be presented, every interview with a general talking about the specs of their war machinery would be matched by a doctor explaining in the driest, most objective terms exactly what bombs do to the human body. Alongside reporters embedded in the military would be reporters embedded in the peace movement and among Iraqi families. Goodman culminated this segment by asking: "If this was state media how would it be any different?"

Next Goodman talked about the human costs of the invasion, including the fact that the majority of deaths occurred among Iraqi civilians, and told the story of an errant bomb on the first day of Operation Iraqi Freedom that hit an apartment complex, killing a four year-old girl, her mother, and her mother's sister, and injuring many more. Another casualty of imprecision was the Hotel Palestine, a hotel in Baghdad that at the time housed over 100 journalists, a fact universally well-known among world media. Coincidentally, the hotel (which was shelled by American tanks) contained the offices of Al Jazeera, a major Middle Eastern media organ critical of the invasion. Many journalists were injured, and a Spanish journalist and a Palestinian journalist were killed. Not long after, members of the Spanish press stood in front of the U.S. embassy chanting "murderer, murderer." One wondered if the tragedy could have been averted had Al Jazeera not given their precise coordinates to the Pentagon.

Back home, the incident was written off as a mistake by Pentagon spokeswoman Victoria Clark, who acquired her job by orchestrating (what was later to be proven false) public testimony from a young Kuwaiti girl of babies being pulled out of incubators by Iraqi soldiers in the run up to Gulf War I. Meanwhile Clear Channel, the largest owner of radio stations in the U.S., told its 1,400 stations to black out music critical of the war, and hip hop artist Michael Franti--a spiritual social critic--discovered that members of his band had gotten a knock on the door from the FBI, who had taken pictures of them at a recent Franti concert. Goodman closed with a statement on the need for more independent media in the U.S., to restore this country to its once proud tradition of true freedom of expression.

All proceeds from the door (contributions were voluntary) and from the concession table (where beer and hotdogs were sold) went to Moveon.org, who produced the next mini-documentary, "Uncovered:  The Whole Truth about the Iraq War." Though more slickly produced than the other shorts, "Uncovered" was no less effective, because most of the people interviewed--former members of the military, CIA, State Department, foreign service, and former weapons inspector Scott Ritter--had all been part of the U.S. foreign policy apparatus. Tackling the sheer number of administration misstatements about the invasion could take a lifetime, so this documentary cut to the chase, focusing on the administration's coordinated televised statements in the months before the invasion. 


While weapons inspector Hans Blix saw no harm in giving the inspections (of Iraq's purported weapons of mass destruction) another 3-4 months, footage showed Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Condoleeza Rice, Paul Wolfowitz, and administration press secretary Ari Fleischer warning of the "imminent threat" of Saddam's weaponry in a barrage of quickly edited cuts that cleverly showed the drumbeat effect of the media offensive. When asked how he knew these weapons existed, Cheney referred to "the quality of our intelligence," though CIA findings were quite vague, what Nation columnist David Corn called "circumstantial, inferential...with caveats and qualifiers." In fact, Hussein Kamel, an Iraqi defector who had been head of Saddam's weapons program, said he had destroyed all biological and chemical weapons on Saddam Hussein's command many years back. Kamel's inconvenient information was ignored.

The other major justification for the Iraq invasion was the contention that Iraq had ties to Al-Qaeda, and thus represented a front in the war on terrorism. But as former administration diplomat Joseph C. Wilson IV pointed out, Saddam was actually a secular leader with no proven ties to Al-Qaeda. In fact, Osama bin Laden called Saddam a "Socialist infidel." By contrast, administration allies Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are well-known breeding grounds for Al-Qaeda.

Bush's 2003 State of the Union address continued the march to war, with references to "mobile production facilities," Sarin Mustard VX gas, "38,000 liters" of Botulin toxin, and "advanced nuclear weapons sites." Despite his long record of lies, Bush's credibility went virtually unquestioned by the major U.S. media in the months leading up to the invasion.

The keynote speech in the administration's drive to war was delivered by Secretary of State Colin Powell at the UN Security Council one month before the invasion. Seen as a lone administration moderate, and having publicly claimed to be against an invasion a year earlier, Powell was perceived--nationally and internationally--as harder to disbelieve, making him the perfect Trojan Horse. Charge by charge the documentary showed that few of Powell's claims have panned out: the ties to Al-Qaeda have still been unproven, the mobile production facilities turned out to be hydrogen generation facilities, the "100 - 500 tons" of chemical weapons agent were never found, and the fabled "weapons of mass destruction" are still at large. (Powell didn't reprise the uranium in Africa story Bush had used in his State of the Union because he felt the evidence was lacking.) Powell's stress on the urgency of pre-emption has proven to be completely unfounded.

The documentary then jumped ahead to the post-invasion situation in Iraq, as day after day passed and no weapons of mass destruction were found, forcing fall girl Condoleeza Rice to go on TV and say "We made a mistake." Weapons inspector Hans Blix said (the administration was) "100 percent sure they had weapons, 0% sure of where they are."

As this segment of the documentary closed, President Bush sat with a foreign leader before members of the press, one of whom asked him if he thought the U.S. inability to find WMDs would hurt America's credibility around the world. The artless dodger took on his trademark deer-in-the headlights look for a few seconds, then said "I'm not exactly sure what that means," to big audience laughs. As grim as much of the subject matter was, the sheer, at times clumsy mendacity of the Bush administration succeeded in providing many such moments of absurdist humor throughout the night of anti-war videos.

Moving along, "Uncovered" explored the Wilson affair. About a year before the invasion, and long before Bush and Cheney's repeated references to Saddam's nuclear program, Dick Cheney sent Joseph Wilson IV to Iraq to find WMDs. Joseph Wilson was a career diplomat who had worked for Bill Clinton and Bush Sr., and was a good friend of the latter. Wilson was sent over on the basis of a memorandum that allegedly showed the sale of yellowcake uranium (for use in nuclear weapons) from Niger to Iraq. 


When Wilson didn't find even remote evidence of the transaction having taken place, he returned to the U.S. and reported his (lack of) findings to the State Department. After the invasion, in July 2003, Wilson recounted his trip in a now-famous op-ed for the New York Times; Wilson concluded by saying that we may have been taken to war on false pretenses. As a reward for speaking the truth as he had found it, Wilson's wife Valerie Plame's identity as a CIA officer was outed in a column by right-wing scribbler Robert Novak, who had received the information from a source inside the Bush administration. Much speculation points to Cheney's office as the source of the leak; if anyone is tried and convicted, they could face a felony for potentially endangering the safety of a member of American intelligence. The memorandum on which Wilson's search was predicated was later found to be a forgery, with several words wrong in French, days of the week that didn't match dates given, names of officials who weren't officials, and names of officials who had been out of government for years.

At its close, "Uncovered" included statements from various foreign policy careerists who said that the invasion of Iraq was a diversion from the war on terrorism that could make our relations with the people of the Middle East more tense and more violent. The film ended to loud applause.

During the intermissions, scenes from a homemade movie shot at the protest earlier in the day came on, showing a drum circle of 20-30 people in the background, while in the foreground directly in front of the camera people danced. Occasionally the camera broke away to the edges of the drum circle to catch some of the assembled messages--a stop sign that said "Stop Bush," a sign that said "He Lied, Thousands Died."    While the cinema verite rolled, the emcee again reminded people of the concession stand and the dartboard at the back, with a picture of Bush made up like a pig on it. There was also a public service announcement from a legal group supporting unencumbered freedom of assembly; a protester named Noah had been beaten up by the police, and a friend or relative was sought.

The intermission movie flicked off and on came a group of video shorts: three videos that did not place in the Moveon.org Bush in 30 Seconds contest, including a riotously funny send up of Bush (Lionel Richie) and Blair (Diana Ross) "singing" back and forth to each other in slow motion, mouthing the words to "Endless Love" while the song played over the top.

Next was a short by Eli Elliott, "Radical Teen Cheer," a short about a group of Mission high school Latinas called Radical Teen Cheer who travel around doing progressive cheers, and a short by Jeff Taylor/James Ficklin called "War Pigs" about Bechtel, the San Francisco-based corporation that plans to make a killing by commodifying Iraq's water supply. Tying into the theme of the night--Roasting the Pigs of War--a protest was shown in front of Bechtel's San Francisco office. As a man with a pig mask spoke into a microphone, a makeshift trough was set out filled with fake dollars. Eventually the sound cut out, and grunting noises came on over footage of suits walking along concerned (or oblivious), only to return to a baby innocently playing with the money, saying "hi" to the camera. Bechtel was posited as a symbol of Bush's "leave no defense contractor behind" modus vivendi, wherein highly profitable corporations get their mitts on Iraq's oil and water while 70% of Iraq is unemployed and the hospitals overflow.

"Gringothon," a homemade movie from Greg Berger, was up next. Filmed in Nueva Guerra, "Gringothon" followed a spirited and naive Che Guavara t-shirt-wearing Caucasian-American in Mexico as he tried to raise money to help take Bush out of office and put him in front of an international tribunal. The ambitious gringo solicited people on buses, on the street, on the sidewalk. This was followed by a short called "A Mountain Has Been Taken" by Caroline Koebel that showed a claymation plant which sprouted green as sunny 60's advertisement music came on, then withered as live testimony of the horrors on the ground in Iraq appeared.

Next up were two Lord of the Rings spoofs ("The Fellowship of the Ring of Free Trade" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Twin Tower Military Industrial Complex"). Over scenes from Lord of the Rings movies were English subtitles scripting out Gandof/Noam Chomsky's battle with two of the most burgeoning, rarely discussed forces in the American and world landscape. Underlying message throughout: never give up, Frodo, no matter how bad things look.

Last in this series of shorts was a movie called "Homeland" (Jacob Bricca) that began in the suburbs, showing big gas-guzzling cars driving by an obese man riding his lawnmower across a big green lawn past a house with a seven-digit address. Drawing attention to the modern-day consumer culture, the short moved on past endless construction sights into a supermarket and long rows of every kind and color of needless consumer good into ads for the war, all of which morphed into a video game on a kid's TV screen, then back into empty car lots and empty supermarkets.

The second intermission came on, with more protest footage and more mostly ignored reminders that the concession stand had not been emptied.

When the show started up again, independent journalist Mark Brecke presented a series of slides that put a human face on the invasion. Brecke, who had been to Iraq and other countries in the region, began his presentation with an entry from Encyclopedia Britannica that pointed out that the people of Mesopotamia (now Iraq) used tools and grew crops while Europeans hunted in the woods for game and gathered berries and roots.

Brecke was embedded in the U.S. military, who knew he was working on a book project. Many of the slides were of children; "the face of war is always different for children," said Brecke. Though Brecke couldn't go anywhere alone, curious children gravitated toward U.S. military members as they walked through the streets on patrol or crawled along in their convoys of Humvees.

Along with the photographs were stories--of how Nazarea (a hotbed of resistance) was ransacked and looted by Saddam's policemen, of the time photographs showing Saddam's predilection for torture were found, of other evidence of evildoing by Saddam being bulldozed, of the ongoing repair of schools, hospitals, orphanages, and of the U.S. military interpreter Mohammad, who was paid $30/month, the average wage in Iraq.

The soldiers on patrol thought Brecke, as a journalist, was making "$1,000/day and drove a sedan" and often borrowed his cellphone to call home. Many of the soldiers, from small towns across America, said they would never see the world the same way again. The cover of the book Brecke contributed to showed a picture of a young Iraqi girl in a hospital with shell shock, staring ahead fixedly. This picture "was the average Iraqi's response--no bandages, no blood."

The final intermission was just five minutes. Again we saw footage of the day's protest. A line of police officers fell into formation and ordered protesters out of the street and onto the sidewalk. The emcee made another pitch for the remaining hotdogs (regular hotdogs only, tofu hotdogs long since gone), and the dartboard at the back.

The last formal piece was "Weapons of Mass Deception," a work in progress by Mike Kavanagh. This 20-minute production (culled from 200 hours of raw material) was a collage of media snippets and overdubbed music, starting with a flashy MSNBC Countdown to Iraq TV graphic shown to the sultry machismo of James Bond-like music. Intermixed with music were well-timed news segments, including one in which a newscaster explained that (oh, by the way) Iraq had the second biggest oil reserves on the planet, which were easily and cheaply extractable. 90% of the reserves were unexplored, making the seizure of such reserves a boon that could help to stabilize oil prices, theoretically saving Bush the fate of Jimmy Carter, who paid the price for rising prices at the pump. 


Following was an SUV ad done to punk industrial music to emphasize destructive power, and a concise seminar called "To Market a War," which listed three prerequisites for a successful media operation in war: 1) the iconic image; 2) a war theme song; and 3) a war hero. The iconic image was the statue of Saddam tumbling, and later the shot of a child running gleefully through the streets of Baghdad with the head of the statue on a leash. The war theme song was "Iraq and I Roll" by country singer Clint Black, a Clear Channel-friendly song that was instantly picked up and played repeatedly on right-wing radio. The war hero was Jessica Lynch, whose story was shown in its initial dramatic reportage, as we now know falsely, by Dan Rather and others. Throughout "Weapons," scenes from the movie "Wag the Dog" (in which a presidential candidate contrives a war in Albania to divert attention from a sex scandal) were mixed with footage of casualties and deaths in Iraq. "Weapons of Mass Destruction" closed with a Twilight Zone monologue that was numbingly prescient.

What remained of the audience filed outside, where they gathered for smokes and conversation. Satisfied to exhaustion by independent films of infinitely more creativity and depth than the effects-heavy beached whales that pass for entertainment in modern day America, we were reminded once again that raw capital and gimmicks are no match for the power of ideas.

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Background: "Total Recall"

The California gubernatorial recall election of 2003 represented one of the most remarkable political victories of right-wing corporatism masquerading as populism in U.S. political history. 

Helped along by ally George W. Bush, who allowed Bill Clinton's price controls to expire soon after taking control of the presidency, Enron shorted California residents of electricity, leading to blackouts and exorbitant rates. Having few options, Democratic governor Gray Davis signed expensive long-term contracts, which were essentially ransom payments, rather than ride the storm out.

Seeing an opportunity in the disaster Enron had created with Bush's help, Republicans expertly prayed on public ignorance, blaming Davis for the electricity shortage. Implicit in the scapegoating of Davis was the falsehood that one of California's most experienced public servants, who was racking up an impressive legislative record as governor, was incompetent.

To run against Davis, Republicans recruited Arnold Schwarzenegger, a man with no political experience and next to no knowledge of public policy who hadn't even bothered to vote in half of the elections in his adult lifetime. Multi-millionaire Arnold was presented as a man of the people, an immigrant who had made it (who, ironically, was campaigning on getting rid of occupational driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants). 

Thanks to a stalling national and state economy, the blandness of Gray Davis, the effectiveness of the GOP's false narratives, and a staggering level of ignorance and misdirected rage, Schwarzenegger became governor, setting the template for the presidential campaign of Donald Trump thirteen years later.

Total Recall

This piece was originally published 11/15/03 at getunderground.com. For background information, click here.


One night what seems like an eternity ago I saw on the local news that the California Republican Party had named a new chairman, Duf Sundheim. Sundheim announced a list of goals for the party, including the recall of Democratic Governor Gray Davis, who had won re-election by five points just a few months prior. 

I laughed to myself. The Republicans had narrowly solidified their national hold on government in the 2002 elections with WMD lies, but in California Democrats had won every statewide office for the first time since 1882. Attempting a recall of Davis seemed like a desperate tactic that was bound to fail. The recall was passed into law by Progressive governor Hiram Johnson, who enshrined direct democracy as a way of counteracting corporate parasites (mining companies, timber companies, ranch interests, and Southern Pacific Railroad) that had a habit of killing necessary government reforms and elemental legitimacy. Davis's actions were far more timid, and generally benign in intent. Davis hadn't authorized secret bombings of hundreds of thousands of Cambodian civilians, or gone around the public, the press, and Congress to sell arms to terrorists and divert the profits to right-wing counterrevolutionaries in Latin America. Davis hadn't repeatedly lied to the press, the public, and the world about the absolute necessity of sending other people's sons and daughters off to die in foreign lands to win the Senate for the Republicans. Hell, Gray--a squeaky clean, straight and narrow Vietnam vet--was too square to have accepted the advances of an eager young admirer named Cybill Shepherd.

Must be just a way for Sundheim to suck up to the Republican powers that be, I thought. A pat on the back from the boys up top for thinking big.

Deregulation of California's electricity market

This story really begins with the California energy crisis of 2000.

As more and more hucksters jump up on our TV screens singing hosannas to deregulation and privatization, it's good to think back to another era of anything goes economic policy--the 1920's. The invisible hand of the 20's clenched up and delivered a knockout punch that produced the Great Depression, which elected Democrat Franklin Deleanor Roosevelt, whose first order of business was cleaning up the mess left by three consecutive Republican presidents in thrall to laissez-faire.

FDR signed a raft of laws to break up monopolies, halt gouging of consumers, spread public resources widely, and hold business accountable. This flurry of legislation produced the Public Utilities Holding Company Act and the Federal Power Act, which, in league with open accounting standards and bans on campaign contributions from utilities, provided Americans with cheap and steady electricity.

These laws held up more or less in tact until 1996, when California's then-governor, Republican Pete Wilson, facing heavy pressure from energy company lobbyists and steep donations from their bosses, pushed and signed into law a measure deregulating the California energy market. Consumers were told that deregulation would allow greater competition, which would inevitably lead to lower prices (20% reductions, according to the power company pitch) for abundant supplies of energy.

Not everyone bought this one-size-fits all free market model. In 1998 Ralph Nader helped put a proposition on the California ballot that would have re-regulated the energy market. 53 million dollars from the state's energy companies helped defeat the measure and keep deregulation in place. In the same election, California Democrats regained the governor's mansion for the first time in 16 years when Gray Davis walloped Republican opponent Dan Lungren by 20 points.

Governor Davis, meet Enron

For a little over a year Davis cruised in the radical center of California politics. He signed some legislation sent to him by the liberal Democratic state legislature, vetoed some, and consistently maintained Clintonian approval ratings of around 60 percent.

Beginning in the spring of 2000, energy prices soared in California, increasing by as much 7000% by the end of the year. Blackouts swept up and down the coast.

Before departing for private life Bill Clinton put a temporary cap on electricity prices, but incoming President George W. Bush removed the cap within his first week in office, at about the same time that Vice President Dick Cheney met with energy company heads to devise the administration's Energy Bill (Cheney has yet to release the notes of these meetings to the courts or the public).

Gray Davis and other California officials cried foul, but the energy companies said that California was falling victim to overuse and undercapacity. When asked on television about the skyrocketing prices that were hemorrhaging California, Bush administration officials echoed the energy company line, blaming the crisis on California's environmental regulations and unwillingness to build more power plants (decisions made by the power companies, not the governor). Trying to turn grits to gravy, the Bush administration claimed the chaos in California was an endorsement of Bush's Energy Bill, which would not have regulated electricity prices, though it would have increased dirty coal production, exhumed and subsidized nuclear energy, and allowed private interests to drill more, log more, and pollute more, often on publicly-owned lands.

Faced with continually rising rates, extreme volatility, including threats of future blackouts, and little help from the feds, Davis made possibly his most controversial decision, buying long-term energy contracts at high prices to stabilize the market.

What really happened in the energy crisis

In the 2000 presidential election California went for Al Gore 54-42. Having spent $10,000,000 in California, $10,000,000 more than Democrat Al Gore, Bush was a little sore, so he and his cabal decided to give up on California, and moreover, to punish California for stepping out of line, in the tradition of Bush's brutally brilliant strategist, Karl Rove. During the energy crisis, Gray Davis publicly accused the energy suppliers--who included Bush's number one contributor, Enron, as well as many other major Bush supporters, including Reliant and Dynegy--of rigging the system and gouging California consumers. Most Californians at the time supported this hunch, only to be ridiculed as "goofy" by Vice President Dick Cheney.

But the fall of Enron in 2001--and the return of Democratic control of the Senate with the defection of Republican Jim Jeffords--lifted the lid on the whole episode, bringing much new information to light. The rapaciousness of the energy suppliers was found to be so blatant that even Bush's serf-like Republican appointees on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission admitted that energy companies had in fact gouged California consumers with a complex series of scams: buying capped energy in California, then selling it back to California at a higher price from a different state; overloading energy lines, so that operators would be forced to make highly expensive emergency purchases; and shutting down plants during peak hours, under the guise of doing repairs, again to raise rates. 
The accusations of increased use and overcapacity were shown to have been fictitious: California had plenty of power plant capacity to meet their increased usage of 5% from the year previous, which still left California with one of the lowest levels of per capita energy consumption in the nation. 

The profits earned at California's expense were so excessive (Enron's profits in the last quarter of 2000 rose 34% from their profits in the last quarter of 1999) that many energy company executives socked away big portions of their windfall in hidden reserves to avoid scrutiny and to pull out later if the bottom line began to sag, as a way of fooling shareholders. At the same time, executives at many of the same companies aggressively exercised their stock options, buying shares at low insider prices, selling high, and pocketing millions in capital gains. During the period under focus, Ken Lay, chairman of Enron and good personal friend of George W. Bush (who has bestowed on Lay the affectionate name "Kenny Boy") racked up 27 million dollars, while Peter Cartwright, chief executive of Calpine in San Jose, waggled almost ten million dollars over just a six-day span.


When all was said and done, California had been fleeced for tens of billions of dollars and voters had found a scapegoat in Governor Gray Davis.

2002 gubernatorial election

The dynamic of the 2002 California gubernatorial campaign was very similar to the 2000 presidential election. Democrats chose Davis, a competent, boring, highly knowledgeable candidate with policies supported by the majority of his constituency, while Republicans picked Bill Simon, a wholesome-appearing intellectual lightweight with no government experience and views to the right of the majority of Californians. Richard Riordan, a centrist Republican and the former mayor of Los Angeles, had lost handily to Simon in the primaries after Davis ran ten million dollars of negative ads against Riordan, who was considered the most electable Republican.

Into and through the 2002 campaign season, most Californians blamed the energy crisis on Gray Davis, taking his approval ratings down into the low forties, from which they never recovered. However, Simon was such an uninspiring and conservative candidate that Davis won by five points--but not without a price. Faced with an opponent with higher qualifications and far more popular--and populist--positions, the Republicans did what they could to make the 2002 election a referendum on Davis's perceived character by constantly blaming him for the power crisis and criticizing him for raising huge amounts of campaign cash (unacceptable behavior in a Democrat) and thus "lacking vision." The focus on Davis's perceived public persona took hold with many California voters, even among many Democrats who pulled clothespins off their noses as they emerged from voting booths.

Petitions are circulated

In early 2003, when petitions first went out supporting the recall, the signatures did not come. This lack of momentum, and the knowledge that only one governor had been recalled in American history, left many commentators predicting that the recall would never get the signatures required in the allotted time.

Enter Darryl Issa. Backed by a small clique of right-wing fundraisers and tacticians with notorious reputations in California, Issa stepped up to revive the recall, naming his effort "Rescue California." A perfect example of California's possibilities for self-reinvention, Issa had left behind a youth in which he was arrested for weapons charges and grand theft auto to become a wildly successful car alarm magnate and conservative congressman representing a district in Southern California. Thinking that a recall vote--where a candidate could win with as little as 15 percent of the vote--would be his one shot at the governor's mansion, or at least a great opportunity for notoriety within the party, Issa poured more than a million dollars of his own money into the recall, hiring signature gatherers and paying them a dollar for each signature. Davis took Issa's campaign to court, claiming that Rescue California had hired people from outside the state who did not have the right to vote in California, but the charges didn't stick. The signatures (3/4ths of which were collected in the gated community-heavy region of Orange County) came in on time and the recall was on for October 7. The first part of the recall ballot would be an up or down vote on whether to keep Davis as governor. The second part of the ballot listed all the replacement candidates; if Davis's removal were approved by more than 50% of voters, the candidate with the most votes on the second part of the ballot would become the new governor. 




(California voters) "are unfamiliar with the recall process ... this uncertainty means voters can be easily swayed in either direction"


-Recall strategist Frank Luntz, in a memo to his clients



Details, schmetails

The recall presented financial and logistical nightmares for California counties, who were already deep in the red because of the recession and the starving off of money from the federal and thus state governments. Many counties faced an uphill battle just getting already-scheduled local elections ready for November.

The Republican strategy was to downplay these concerns, and concerns about removing a democratically-elected governor less than a year into his second term--concerns voiced much more vocally in the San Francisco Bay area than anywhere else in the state--by hammering on the purported risks of leaving Gray Davis in office.

The game plan for Issa's "Rescue California" campaign was shaped in a memo by the nationally known Frank Luntz, a high-caliber Republican strategist and former pollster for Enron and Newt Gingrich. Echoing the GOP strategy in the impeachment battle and 2000 presidential election, the memo said that the recall campaign should avoid discussion of the global, life-shaping decisions public executives make in favor of a withering focus on the perceived weakness of Davis's character. As Luntz put it in the memo: "Issues are less important than attributes and character traits in your recall effort."

Policy specifics were to be avoided, because Davis had signed and was in the process of signing a stunning amount of popular, forward-thinking legislation:

-the nation's first paid family leave law


-domestic partner benefits for gays and lesbians


-a host of environmental protection measures, including the strengthening of wetland protections, the banning of the flame retardant perchlorate, Co2 emissions reduction laws (challenged in court by the Bush administration and the auto companies), and a bill requiring 20% renewable energy by 2017


-the strongest pro-choice protections in the country


-a revolutionary stem cell research bill


-measures on behalf of the working class such as a bill that will bring healthcare to a million uninsured workers, reinstatement of overtime pay for more than 8 hours worked in a day, a raise in the minimum wage, increases in funding for affordable housing, and a groundbreaking law forcing agriculture companies to arbitrate stalemates with underpaid migrant workers


-a bill cracking down on predatory lending


-the appointment of qualified judges from all genders, races, and backgrounds (including 9 openly gay and lesbian judges, 9 more than Davis's two Republican predecessors appointed in 16 years)


-the strongest HMO reform and gun control laws in the country


-the establishment of solid nursing home staffing mandates


-legislation strengthening tenants' rights


-the toughest anti-spam and financial privacy bills in the country


-a law protecting 1,500 American Indian religious sites from development





"A riot of millionaires masquerading as a 'revolt of the people'"

-bedrock conservative columnist George Will, on the recall



Let the games begin

Anyone with $1,500 to blow and 350 signatures could jump in the fray, so the process degraded quickly, growing to a field of over 200 candidates, among them a well-known and artificially well-endowed Los Angeles porn star, adult entertainment magnate Larry Flynt, and so-early-eighties actor Gary Coleman.

Meanwhile, the state legislature was engaged in the serious business of passing a state budget, an insufferable task ever since the passage of Proposition 13 in 1978. Proposition 13 was so radical that it was opposed by former California governor and future president Ronald Reagan, the embodiment of Republican conservatism. Proposition 13 capped property taxes at 2%, which choked the revenue windpipe of 25% of its air. Within less than two decades California's roads, schools, and healthcare went from among the best in the country to among the worst.

The law also dictated that no state budget or tax increase could pass with less than a 2/3rds vote of the legislature. Eight California Republicans used the 2/3rds law to hold the 2003 budget hostage, and while doing so blamed Davis for the delay, feeding the notion that Davis's incompetence was getting in the way of a budget deal. The California Eight offered few alternatives and refused to deal until the Democrats agreed to cuts in healthcare for the poor, 10% hikes on college student fees, as well as a tripling of the vehicle registration fee (to the same rate it had been before it was lowered during the Dot.com boom).

The great California deficit

When the budget was inked, California had an $8 billion deficit. Even while protecting to what extent he could popular public priorities (healthcare and education), Davis became the scapegoat for painful budget cuts, which were being felt nationwide in states and localities who had seen federal dollars shrink while W poured tens of billions of dollars into the war in Iraq and the pockets of his biggest contributors. 


When appearing on television, Republicans hit their mark and referred to a "$38 billion deficit," which no longer existed, due to the budget deal. Often Democrats present would correct the error, only to see the same Republican official repeat the $38 billion figure the next night on TV. The charge was so nifty that it was picked up and frequently repeated by the media, including the editor of the San Francisco Chronicle and Chris Matthews of Hardball, who kept mentioning the number after clearly being told that it was inaccurate. 

Inevitably, this familiar hijacking of the dialogue convinced many voters that Davis was guilty of gross negligence, though 47 states were in the red, and California's per capita deficit is significantly lower than the $500 billion dollar-whopper Bush will drop on us next year.



"I know Arnold personally. He is in no way qualified to govern anybody or anything."

-Howard Koch, executive producer of Schwarzenegger's latest movie, Terminator 3, in an e-mail to friends and associates



The Terminator: "Man of the People"

Unable to find any statewide candidates who were attractive, media-savvy, and not right-wing Neanderthals, California's Republicans turned to the land of make believe, Hollywood. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced his campaign for governor of California on the Tonight Show, and revealed the strategy he would rigidly adhere to for the next three months: visit good friends with major media outlets, chat amiably while tossing weightless pseudo-populist darts at Davis's character, juke and jive when asked how he would specifically do better or wave his hand in the air and laugh it off as an irrelevant question (pressed at one point about his lack of specificity, Arnold said "the public doesn't care about the details.")

Arnold Schwarzenegger, who in 2001 spent $383,000 on nannies for his kids, ran as the latest sunny-faced multi millionaire Republican Everyman doing his political internship as governor of a state with the 5th largest economy in the world. He had not even bothered to vote in five of the past 11 elections, including the presidential elections of 1996 and 2000, but he would better steer a state through tough times than the most experienced public official in the state.

Convenient myths, continued

While Arnold did his thing, his surrogates fed a handful of messages over and over to the media, all in a chorus. Two of the biggest interrelated lines were that the California economy was in a major slump, and that a big part of the reason for the slump was California's--and thus, by extension, Gray Davis's--hostile attitude toward business. Helped along by the stock market crash, low revenues, 9/11, Bush's unfunded mandates on education, welfare, and homeland security, and the 82 cents California gets for every dollar it gives the federal government, California was and is in tough times, but its dive was no bigger than average in the United States: housing prices continue to rise, the jobless rate is right around the national average, personal income has remained level, and start ups continue to balance out businesses that leave for lower taxes. 


Not unlike other high tech areas of the country, there was a huge exodus of jobs overseas after the Dot.com bust, but the business environment had little to do with this; Texas, a state with very little regulation and low taxes, had even bigger tech job losses than California. Healthcare, electricity, and real estate/land prices make California the 13th most expensive place to do business in the United States, but considered against the comically lax regulation and tax burdens in much of the United States, this is hardly extraordinary. To many business owners, the climate, landscape, and physical beauty compensate in quality of life, which is why California still leads the world in innovation and entrepreneurship. Complaints of government strangulation of the private sector were also big in the early '90s recession, just a couple years before California had its biggest boom ever. Nonetheless, after zombie-like repetition, the charges that Davis was strangling business stuck, just like the purported link between Saddam Hussein and 9/11.

Arnold's silver bullet(s)

While blaming the electricity crisis and the state of the California economy on Davis's lack of character, Republicans pulled out their silver bullet, the "car tax." In the early '90s California recession, Republican Governor Pete Wilson signed a bill that tripled the vehicle registration fee. In 1997, when the economy soared, Wilson lowered the fee back down to its original rate. In 2003, after Republicans refused a minimal tax increase on the very richest Californians, the California legislature was forced to raise the registration fee back to its pre-boom cost. To the majority of Southern Californians, the vehicle tax was a major assault on their sense of entitlement to drive cheaply, global warming ozone depletion and the fate of the rest of the world be damned. As So Cal suburbanites got stuck in regular traffic jams in the most overdeveloped artificial environment on earth, right-wing shock jocks wailed on about the vehicle registration fee.

And, as if raising the cost of driving weren't bad enough, the shock jocks hit the jackpot of white nativism when Gray Davis signed a bill to allow illegal aliens to legally drive back and forth from jobs that no one else wanted. While much of the world likes to see California as a sunny paradise, nothing raises the hackles on the backs of So Cal's vanilla suburbs than "special treatment" for foreigners.

Cruise control

Arnold's shady, handsomely-compensated handlers used donations from real estate developers and Silicon Valley to run populist-tinged ads wherein Arnold said he would stop special interests ("it's time to return government to the people") while motivational music trailed in the background. And as the other major gubernatorial candidates held several diplomatic, informative debates, Arnold's handlers made sure to keep him at least a mile away from any potentially unscripted moment, gliding him through the co-ed softball circuit--Oprah, Howard Stern, right-dial talk radio--where he would be certain to get pitches slow and perfectly deflectable with spoonfed one-liners from his movies, like "Hasta la vista, baby." Arnold only stepped outside the bubble twice: once for a press conference, and once to do a debate, which he agreed to only after he was told he would get the questions in advance. 

One of Arnold's central messages was his embodiment of the American dream. Many times he told enthusiastic audiences how he had come to the country with little English and 50 cents in his pocket. The reality was that Arnold (at the time Mr. Europe and Mr. Universe) first entered the United States on an elite visa exclusively extended to athletes, entertainers, and religious figures, under the sponsorship of Joe Wieder, a world famous bodybuilding magnate who set Arnold up with a car, an apartment, a stipend, and later, contacts who would help make Arnold rich in Hollywood and California real estate. 


In the fictional world of Southern California, where myths refuse to die, Arnold's tall tale added moral ballast to his vehement opposition to driver's licenses for illegal immigrants, supposedly reflecting a strict sense of fair play. Oddly enough, Arnold was alleged to have broken his visa agreement before he became a citizen by making money off of a bricklaying business. Arnold's spokesman swore his client hadn't done anything illegal, but refused to release Arnold's immigration records.

Down the stretch

As the race neared the finish line Davis's popularity remained dismally low, weighed down by lies, half-truths, and Davis's unique breed of boring, while Arnold solidified his lead, refusing Davis's debate offers and attending heated rallies where Arnold yelled the famous line from "Network" ("We're mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore") to huge crowds of Southern Californians who'd roughed years of federally subsidized water, roads, and defense jobs. Arnold looked on approvingly as big wrecking balls showed what Arnold had in mind for the vehicle registration fee.

In the last week of the election a lot of dirt came Arnold's way, including the revelation that Arnold had admired Hitler (for his ability to control large numbers of people, among other things). This was unsurprising to those who knew that Arnold's dad was a German stormtrooper during World War II, or those who knew that Arnold was a good friend of Austrian war criminal Kurt Waldheim, to whom Arnold raised a toast when he married Maria Shriver. It was alleged that outtakes from Arnold's first major movie, "Pumping Iron," revealed many other unsavory ruminations, but the media could not investigate because Arnold had bought rights to the movie stills for $1.25 million dollars. Later the director's partners sued, claiming they had not been privy to the sale. Arnold eventually settled for $400,000 and sealed the evidence forever.

A much larger irritant for Arnold was a blockbuster story the Thursday morning before the election in the Los Angeles Times that included allegations of sexual harassment against Arnold from more than a dozen different women. In 1993 Wendy Leigh had written a book called "Arnold, an Unauthorized Biography" which told much the same story (in addition to alleged incidences of racism and anti-Semitism), but Arnold's full court press helped slam the lid on Leigh's book.

Faced with the Times's story, Arnold's campaign coordinator Sean Walsh forwarded a URL to carefully-chosen media that linked to a woman with the same name as the 16th harassment accuser, Rhonda Miller. According to the site, Rhonda had been charged with prostitution, narcotics, and forgery. Surely this woman couldn't have any credibility, could she? Quickly this piece of news made it to Fox, the Drudge Report ("ARNOLD ACCUSER'S STORY FALLS APART"), Rush Limbaugh, and other talk radio barkers, where it circled and swelled among the cannibals in the right-wing media echo chamber.

After the election it came out that Rhonda Miller the alleged prostitute was not Rhonda Miller the 16th Schwarzenegger accuser, but Arnold had already won comfortably, 55-45, despite getting less than 50% of the vote in Los Angeles and a weak showing in the Bay Area.

The hangover

In the days after the recall, articles popped up in the press about California's improving economy, and a report came out that showed that test scores had improved for the fifth year in a row and 90% of the state's public schools were improving under Gray Davis's laser-like focus on education.

As the drama from the recall had barely subsided, arsonists set off what has become the largest fire in California in possibly a century. Virtually overnight many of the areas who had voiced the strongest antipathy for Gray Davis's "big government spending habits" were sending Arnold with hat in hand to Washington to get hundreds of millions of dollars in state and federal aid for people who had typically built or bought homes in unsustainable, fire-prone ecosystems, in canyons, mountains, on hillsides.

After four years of drought, in April of 2003, Gray Davis wrote FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Association) asking for $430 million dollars to help thin underbrush and cut down dead, highly flammable trees to avoid a major catastrophe in three counties--San Diego, San Bernardino and Riverside--which turned out to be the backbone of Arnold's electoral map. The situation was so dire that within a couple weeks, a bipartisan group of eight California federal officials wrote a follow-up letter reminding FEMA of the importance of aid. 

Though the amount sought was less than 1% of what Bush recently asked for in the latest installment of his colonial venture in Iraq, Bush's friends at FEMA kept W's record of screwing California perfect, waiting six months to issue a rejection, which was received less than 24 hours before the fires began. Instinctively, some on the right blamed the fires on Gray Davis, but even Republican Mary Bono, whose district was victimized by the fire, told reporters "FEMA's decision was wrong" and "the timing couldn't be worse...we knew this disaster was going to happen with certainty."

San Diego could have helped itself, but it didn't have its own fire department. Every time bond measures came up to increase money for firefighting, the anti-tax majority rose up in opposition. Mike Davis, author of two of the most definitive books on California's runaway development and its attendant battle with nature (City of Quartz, Ecology of Fear) told LA Weekly of the free lunch libertarianism in his place of residence, San Diego: "It's a form of parasitism, really...this is a culture that wants to live in a known fire ecology but not pay for fire protection."

To ransom California for aid, the Republican Congress is now trying to push their irony-doused Healthy Forests Bill. Republicans claim that unloosing restrictions on Big Timber's felling of thousands of stands of old growth timber is a fair exchange for thinning limited amounts of underbrush on public lands, which will do little to stop fires in California, two-thirds of which have been on private land.

While refusing to designate more than half the funds in the bill for thinning forests around residences (the stated aim of the legislation), Republican plans to limit judicial and public oversight of logging of old growth timber on federally-owned lands could very well lead to the type of clear cutting followed by uniformly planted stands that cause more fires by leaving open spaces that let the sun in to dry out the forest floor. California is so desperate to get the aid that Senate Democrats might just fold and go along with a bad bill.

Arnold's agenda

After being defiantly vague through the whole of the three-month election, Arnold's grand vision has begun to take hold. Not a week after Arnold had won the recall, it came out that Arnold was planning on settling Davis's lawsuits against the power companies (now that they'd done their job of getting him into office). Arnold's press spokesman said that making any connection between this slap on the wrist and Arnold's meeting in May 2001 with Enron head Kenneth Lay was preposterous; Arnold said he couldn't even remember meeting Lay. For good measure, Arnold will be floating another electricity deregulation proposal to get California moving again.

Education is considered the most important issue to California voters. Arnold has chosen former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan, someone who had a thorny relationship with those in the trenches, California's teachers, as his education secretary. The situation is further exacerbated by Riordan's support for diverting public money to religious schools ("vouchers" in common parlance.)

Arnold also will play to his base in Southern California by massaging them with federal dollars, trying to end the "car tax" (which funds firefighters, police, and libraries), and asking for a vote--or ballot measure, if necessary--to repeal the driver's license for illegal immigrants. 


Pulling the drawbridge up behind you has long precedence in American politics. In California politics, it's an unwritten rule that Southern California must bash immigrants and/or people of color at least every couple election seasons, as if they need to get it out of their system. In just the last decade California has had divisive ballot measures on medical care and education for children of illegal immigrants, Affirmative Action, and bilingual education. Following the generally effective national Republican strategy of hiding the likes of Cheney, Tom Delay, Dick Armey, and other nasty white men behind Bush's plastic Colgate smile, Arnold preached inclusion to the ends of the earth only to make his staff a virtual ideological carbon copy of former Republican governor Pete Wilson's. Though invisible during the campaign (because his name is mud among the growing, emerging ranks of Hispanic voters in California), Pete Wilson has contributed a vast swath of Arnold's administration, including chief of staff Patricia Clarey, deputy to Wilson's chief of staff, and Jessie Knight, a Wilson appointee to the Public Utilities Commission who was a big booster of energy deregulation. Along with the Wilson graduates Arnold has brought aboard many Reagan, Bush, and Bush II folks, such as Viet Dinh, one of the authors of the Patriot Act, as well as several economic advisers from the Hoover Institution, the only economic institution in the country named after a president who had a worse job growth record than George W. Bush.

W's brother, Jeb Bush, governor of Florida, is loaning California Donna Arduin, who has served as Florida's budget director. Arduin is often referred to as Jeb Bush's "hatchet woman" for her full steam ahead tight-lipped approach to enacting cravenly elitist economic policies under the guise of "trimming the fat." To keep the budget balanced she has raided trust funds, fought lower class sizes, pushed huge cuts on underfunded universities, and allowed waiting lists for health insurance for poor children and eldercare to balloon. She has also trimmed the fat by lopping Medicaid-funded dental work from 26,000 adults and dropping coverage of eyeglasses and hearing aids. Arduin's tactics are so extreme that even some Florida Republicans are concerned. The president of Florida's Republican Senate, Tom Lee, said "We've created a game of hot potato for future elected officials with our budget...The music is going to stop soon, and someone is going to be left with a big problem." Ken Pruitt, the Republican head of the Florida Senate Appropriations Committee, has traveled has traveled around the state in a yellow bus in protest of what he says is Jeb Bush's lack of commitment to education. The School Boards Association agrees, giving Florida a D- for school funding. Fortunately for California's children, there is a liberal Democratic majority in the state legislature that has no plans of Floridating California. 




(Americans) "like violence, power, revenge, riches, success and fame, and they don't know the difference between real life and fantasy, between real people and characters in an action movie."

-Larry Derfner, writing in The Jerusalem Post



Arnold's amendment

For those who believed this movie within reality couldn't get any more surreal, there is one last, lingering twist: currently the U.S. Constitution does not allow foreign-born citizens to run for president. Taking a sudden interest in immigrant rights, Senator Orrin Hatch (the Judiciary Committee's ranking Republican from the pure vanilla state of Utah) recently conducted a hearing proposing a 28th amendment to the Constitution, which would allow American immigrants with twenty years of citizenship status to run for the presidency. Schwarzenegger, coincidentally, has been a U.S. citizen for twenty years.

So don't be completely surprised if at some time in the future (after all, California is about the future, right?) American voters pick an action hero to save the country from big spenders, business killers, and if we're real lucky, terrorists.

Saturday, January 5, 2019

Background: "The Contenders"

August of 2003 was a horrifying time politically, markedly worse than the present in terms of human consequences. 

In just a few years we had gone from a time of peace and record prosperity with an exceptionally eloquent centrist president who had won two landslides to a time of war by choice and recession with an astonishingly inarticulate and ignorant extreme-right president who had stolen office and was laying waste to just about every progressive priority (and democratic principle) in sight, with barely a peep from the mainstream media about this dark turn of events.

Though any honest and informed person now recognizes that Bush was one of the worst presidents in U.S. history, he had high approval ratings at the time. Ironically, though he had helped enable 9/11 by ignoring reams of intelligence warnings, the public rallied around Bush after the event because they wanted a father figure and the mainstream media had failed to report on his gross negligence. Iraq hadn't spun out of control yet, Katrina hadn't happened, the crash of 2008 was several years in the future, so Bush's stock was high.

Democratic presidential hopeful Howard Dean was the flavor of the moment because he was the first candidate to forcefully--angrily, even--give voice to the feelings of Democratic activists and politically-literate voters who understood just how destructive Bush's presidency was. Right behind him in the polls were John Kerry and John Edwards, who would end up as the presidential and vice presidential candidates on the Democratic ticket. Ultimately, thanks to all of the GOP's breathtakingly cynical maneuvers to suppress the vote in Ohio, this ended up being the most prescient sentence in the feature:

There is a small (but growing) body of Democrats who calibrate the degree of difficulty in unseating Bush and come to the conclusion that none of the current candidates is up to task.  

Friday, January 4, 2019

The Contenders

This piece was originally published in 08/03 at getunderground.com. For background information, click here.

Every day of George W. Bush's presidency is a public citizen's nightmare. Though chosen by party cronies on the Supreme Court--rather than the electorate--Bush has ruled like a king, trampling on the Constitution, rolling back worker, environmental, and public safety safeguards, greatly exacerbating the retirement problem of aging Baby Boomers by looting the public treasury with tax cuts for the wealthiest 1%, and clogging the courts with reactionary Republicans who want to drag the States back to the pure, simple days before the social revolutions of the sixties.

And they're just getting warmed up. Bush's top strategist, Karl Rove, models himself on William McKinley's head consultant, and based on the Bush administration's direction so far, we can confidently guess that the ultimate goal of this group is to wind the clock back to the turn of the 20th Century, before pure food laws, child labor laws, trust-busting, protection of public lands, the progressive income tax, the 40-hour work week, the minimum wage, Social Security, bank regulation, regulation of the stock market, media ownership laws, the right to strike, worker safety laws, fair housing laws, civil rights laws, voting rights laws, food stamps, Medicare, Medicaid, Head Start, the Freedom of Information Act, environmental protections, consumer protections, a woman's right to choose, and all the fundamental civil decencies Democrats (and Republicans Teddy Roosevelt and Richard Nixon) advocated and passed into law over stiff conservative opposition.

If this history did not make it obvious enough, Bush's bold, ruthless right-wing push over the past two-plus years has rendered the notion that the major parties have the same agenda patently ridiculous. Yet the Green Party has indicated that they will probably run a presidential candidate in 2004, though, with an anemic 1 or 2% of the vote nationally, they pose absolutely no threat to Bush. In fact, if the Green candidate has any discernible effect on the race, it will be to offer Bush a helping hand by forcing Democrats to shift precious resources to states that should be safely Democratic, giving Bush an even bigger advantage in the swing states (see 2000, Florida). Even some top Green Party officials are leery of this surefire loser of a strategy, and Ralph Nader of all people has suddenly become cautious, saying he may not run as a Green if Howard Dean becomes the Democratic nominee.

As ever, and always, it is the Democrats, and the Democrats alone, who can end a scorched earth Republican administration, and it's going to be a heck of a lot tougher prying W. out of the White House than it was keeping him from getting in as an untested candidate with a wafer-thin resume. Faced with a high state of fear and confusion among much of the public, a mainstream media thus far generally compliant (or should we say complicit?) with most of the Bush agenda, and an opponent who will have 200 million quid pro quo-drenched dollars, anyone concerned about the state of the union needs to take a hard look at the small handful of Democratic candidates to find the one with the best combination of clarity and passion, excited activist networks, media savvy, and the most winning personality contrast to Bush.

Against such a well-oiled machine it's vital to pick a candidate soon and convince the rest to drop out, so progressives can come together and mount their resources. Looking at the 9 (or 10, if Wes Clark jumps in) candidates in the current field, it's obviously time to pare down. Carol Moseley-Braun has a respectable public record, but it's hard to imagine the first Democrat to lose a Senate seat in Illinois in twenty years (to a novice conservative Republican in a Democratic state in a Democratic year, 1998) presenting Bush with much of a challenge. Dennis Kucinich, a four-term congressional representative from Cleveland, probably gets a 100% ranking from every liberal interest group, and has a stellar record against untrammeled globalization, the rampant, dangerous corporatization of our culture and society, and the military-industrial complex, but he has little money, little organization, views well to the left of the whole red zone and some of the blue, and would be the first man in the United States to ascend directly from the House of Representatives to the presidency since 1880. Ditto for Dick Gephardt, another honorable man with a history of loyalty to good causes. The last time Gephardt ran for president, in 1988, he was trounced by political flyweight Michael Dukakis, and outside of Iowa he will most likely be trounced again this year, due to his irremediable blandness and his resultant inability to excite many voters. He has the endorsement of the Teamsters for his opposition to anti-labor trade policies, but this could be nothing but an out for the Teamsters: if Gephardt is eliminated in the primaries, the Teamsters could then endorse the Republican in the race, as they did in '72, '80, '84, and '88, if it looks like the Democrat will lose come Labor Day 2004. Also in the race is Al Sharpton, who has contributed the most concise take on the Bush tax cuts yet ("It's like Jim Jones giving you Kool-Aid...it tastes good but it will kill you"), and provides a voice for terminally neglected inner city residents, but is more likely to win the lottery than become president.

Stuck in the middle of the pack--neither shoe-outs nor top-tier candidates--are two senators: Bob Graham of Florida and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. It's not as easy to dismiss either of these candidates' higher aspirations, but it's easy enough. Joe Lieberman plays the role of a serious candidate before his friends in the press, but is relying almost entirely on his appointment as Gore's vice presidential partner to keep his poll numbers afloat among party regulars, even as he has criticized the Gore campaign's populist bent. Lieberman is trying to present his long-time genuflection before the defense industry, and his interrelated support for interventions abroad, as a trump card against other Democratic candidates, particularly Howard Dean, who have more reluctance to make America the world's policeman. Lieberman is also ribbing fellow contenders over their support for social programs and their opposition to unconditional free trade. These messages play well with donation-giving corporations, elite media interests, and some swing voters, but most Democratic primary voters won't respond well to values lectures from such a craven opportunist who happens to be about as exciting as a bowl of Quaker oats.

Beginning with his underdog gubernatorial victory in 1978, Bob Graham has never lost an election in Florida, ground central. For years Bob Graham has been largely in the background, but since deciding to run for president, he has used his post on the Senate Intelligence Committee to attack Bush's huge (some may think self-interested) lapses in security spending, particularly to localities, Bush's carelessness in focusing military attention on an empty threat (Iraq) when there are more dangerous, ever present dangers (al Qaeda, North Korea), and Bush's imperial secrecy, particularly the administration effort, thus far successful, to shield from the public 28 pages of a recent report on 9/11 wherein is outlined Bush's deprecatory treatment of the Saudis and hijacker ties to some members of the Saudi ruling family. Graham's drawbacks are a low-key personality, the fact that he has never walked the media gauntlet, his lack of money or an activist base, and the possibility that he could face major trouble in the early primaries before Super Tuesday in the south. He has a slim sleeper potential at best.

A generous reading of the present field yields just three candidates who have the money, the drive, the support, and the salability to be a potentially competitive Democratic nominee. John Kerry is a long-time (19 years) senator from Massachusetts with a very impressive resume which includes support for universal health coverage, environmental protections (including protection of the Alaskan National Wildlife Preserve) and energy independence, a very progressive voting record, good looks, loads of money, an alpha male physical presence, and a Silver Star, Bronze Star, and three Purple Hearts for his service in Vietnam to boot (after his valor on the battlefield Kerry became a spokesman for Vietnam Veterans Against the War). Despite what Christopher Hitchens, the high priest of the chickenhawk scribblers, and other members of the media say about Kerry's perceived waffling on Iraq (for the intervention, against the unilateral handling of reconstruction), Kerry has an authority on foreign policy and security issues --the biggest Democratic weakness in the eyes of the average voter--that none other in the current field can lay claim to. In 1985, Kerry became a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which helped publicize Ollie North's unconstitutional operation in Nicaragua. As part of an investigation into the North shenanigans, Kerry contributed to a famous report that included mention of connections between the CIA and drug-smuggling Contras.

Kerry is a firm believer in the Democratic tradition of multilateral internationalism. Part of Kerry's internationalism includes support for free trade agreements, which may not play well with labor interests. Kerry's biggest weakness is that he's essentially an unreconstructed liberal from Massachusetts, which could be the death knell for his candidacy throughout the South and many other areas in the red zone.

John Edwards is a senator from North Carolina who has decided to run for president during his first term in public office, which is almost unheard of. He possesses a growing, solid command of policy specifics and has drawn up a policy manifesto entitled "Real Solutions for America," which includes his plans to provide a tax credit to first-time home buyers, matching retirement savings accounts for those making under $50,000 a year, and a plan to make health insurance mandatory for those under 21. Edwards is running as an anger-free Southern populist in the Clinton mold, favoring scholarships for people who agree to teach in inner city schools for five years and a repeal of the regressive aspects of the Bush tax cut. He has supported the Iraq War all along, but has criticized the unilateral handling of the reconstruction. He supports commonsense proposals to federalize security of chemical and nuclear facilities that have been bottled up by the Republicans. He has been ambiguous about trade, expressing concern for North Carolina industries adversely affected by globalization while voting to give President Bush authority to negotiate fast-track trade agreements. He has great strengths in the gentility of his manner, which can play all around the country, his struggles on behalf of the little guy as a trial lawyer, his photogenics, and his life story (he is self-made in the Horatio Alger way Republicans love to mythologize).

But Edward's poll numbers are low because he has spent much time of late fundraising, rather than campaigning, and has by far the least experience in the field, including experience dealing with the media--observers are wondering if he has a glass jaw. According to a story that was leaked to the press some months back, Edwards was at one time feared enough by the White House that they had drawn up a plan to tar and feather him with the liberal bogeyman label, but that role has been seized by Howard Dean (drum roll, please).

Simultaneous appearances on the covers of Time and Newsweek have helped Howard Dean solidify his position as the current Democratic front runner. Despite what anyone says (or plants in the media) about Dean, his record as the governor of Vermont from 1992-2002 was mostly centrist. He often opposed the social spending wish lists of the lefty Democratic legislature in order to keep Vermont's budget in balance (Vermont currently is one of the few states in the nation that is not drowning in debt, thanks to Dean's fiscal responsibility, a concept about as familiar to Bush as cuneiform).

In the spirit of responsible public outlays, Dean has called for full repeal of the Bush tax cuts to fund healthcare coverage for the uninsured and other glaring gaps in our infrastructure. Governor Dean extended healthcare to all children in New Hampshire, mandated mammogram coverage in the state health plan, and extended prescription drug benefits to those up to 400% of the poverty level. As a doctor, Dean brings a wealth of ideas and interest to the issue. Dean is also very well known for signing the first civil unions bill in the country, though he has expressed opposition to gay marriage. Dean has laid out a long-term environmental plan that would have the US using 20% renewable fuels by 2020, and Dean has shown strong support for multilateral environmental treaties. Dean backed NAFTA, but has evolved to a position of supporting free trade agreements only on condition that they include labor and environmental protections. Dean is a strong supporter of the right to organize.

Parting with the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, Dean was a strong supporter of welfare "reform." In another break with the left, Dean has said gun laws ought to be a state issue, a tacit admittance that he would sign no new gun control legislation, though he has expressed support for the Brady Bill, the assault weapons ban, and gun show restrictions. Dean has said he would not reduce the bloated defense budget, but would simply spend the money more effectively. Though the death penalty is a virtual non-issue at the presidential level, Dean also challenges liberal orthodoxy in his support of the death penalty under narrow circumstances (terrorist acts, crimes against children).

Dean's biggest assets, thus far, have been his personality and his trailblazing organization. Beginning with a strong, vocal stand against the invasion of Iraq, Dean quickly shed his dark horse status with a combination of simple, direct messages to disenchanted Democrats, an unprecedented online presidential campaign that has raised easy money and linked Dean supporters all over the country, and a vigorous, expressive presence. In a time when the United States is represented by a laughably inarticulate automaton that never utters an unscripted line or appears in a spontaneous setting, Dean is the real deal, a politician who routinely throws away the script so he can speak his mind. Call it a 180 degree turn toward public accountability.

The most obvious sign of Dean's pre-eminence is the sudden wave of flack he has received in the media. Over the past few weeks Dean has been attacked directly or indirectly by Lieberman, Kerry, the Democratic Leadership Council, and liberal, and conservative members of the media. The White House has jumped on the bandwagon by intimating that it would relish a Dean nomination. As ever, this could be a bluff, part of the eternal White House confidence game (remember Bush strategists saying they were certain he would get more than 300 electoral votes in 2000?), or maybe it's true. Dean has energized a plurality of angry progressives, but to sell nationally (assuming he wins the primary), Dean would have to pull a majority of moderates, something he hasn't done yet. Dean is an adept politician, so it is still possible that he will broaden his appeal.

There are a lot of dynamics in play that could affect Dean more than anything he does or doesn't do as a candidate. If the economy remains in the tank, no new terrorist attacks occur, and the media treats Dean even nominally fairer than they treated Al Gore, Dean could have a shot. However, if the situation in Iraq cools down, and the WMD story stays underground (or WMDs are found), Dean's bedrock anti-war position and clear-spoken populism may not catch on with the undecideds. If the economy recovers, and/or there is another terrorist attack, Bush could pull away.

There is a small (but growing) body of Democrats who calibrate the degree of difficulty in unseating Bush and come to the conclusion that none of the current candidates is up to task. In times of siege, or perceived siege, it's natural for a populace to shift right, out of fear and paranoia. Unless this state of fear abates--or Bush gets caught up in a scandal that the major media don't abandon for a change--the belief is that the only hope of saving the country from four more ghoulish years of Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Ashcroft lies in the person of Wes Clark. 


Called "The Ideal Candidate" by the Atlantic Monthly, Wes Clark offers astounding credentials: he graduated first in his class at West Point in 1966 and received a Master's degree in Philosophy, Economics and Politics from Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. Clark's role as supreme allied commander of the NATO forces that stopped genocide in Kosovo is complemented by his Defense Distinguished Service Medal, a Silver Star, a Purple Heart, and the Medal of Freedom. He hails from Little Rock, which gives him a leg up in the South, the very heart of Bush's base. He is forceful and articulate in his denunciations of Bush's bullying unilateralism, is liberal on social issues, has (so far) established a decent relationship with the press, and is not as vulnerable to caricature from the right, because he's everything they fantasize that their candidates should be, and much more. Most importantly, with his vast military experience and knowledge of world affairs, he has an untouchable credibility that could neutralize Bush on the vital issue of national security. Freed of the fear factor that has been the criminally cynical linchpin of Bush's political success, a majority of the voting public just might repair our international credibility by making the States a freer, fairer, more open country in a safer world.

The question is: could Clark catch on? Clark would have to raise a lot of money, soon, differentiate himself from the rest of the pack, and overtake Dean (or anyone else who catches fire) in the Democratic primaries, where Clark's prime fitness for the general may not have much impact. Esquire magazine has called Clark "The man who can beat Bush (if he wants to)"; will Democratic primary voters give him the opportunity?

There are no thunderbolt-throwers like Bill Clinton in the current pack, but Bush's tumbling numbers have revealed a previously hidden window of vulnerability. Fresh excitement on the Democratic campaign trail, in combination with what we know will be a big effort by all the groups most adversely effected by Bush's right-wing juggernaut (labor unions, environmental activists, pro-choice and civil rights groups), could provide an in. If those of us who care about the future of the United States coalesce around the best candidate and push hard to spread our message, it's possible we may send the Bush family packing, once and for all.